Scouting Report
Paul Gaustad holds a +8.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Backes on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backes 48.7% vs Gaustad 56.7% (-8.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Backes 52.3%
Defensive zone
Gaustad 91.6%
Neutral zone
Gaustad 77.3%
Result
Paul Gaustad favored at 56.4%
43.6%
56.4%
Backes
Gaustad
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Backes
Gaustad
Last 5: Backes 4-1 Gaustad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backes
4
0
Backes
Gaustad
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaustad
0
1
Backes
Gaustad
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backes
Gaustad
Edge
Even Strength
49.1% (967)
57.8% (854)
-8.7%
Power Play
48.1% (189)
56.0% (25)
-7.9%
Penalty Kill
45.2% (168)
55.1% (263)
-9.9%
On penalty kill, Gaustad has a +9.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gaustad shoots left. Backes is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (981).
Backes shoots right. Gaustad is 56.3% vs right-shot opponents (416).
Home / Away
Backes
Gaustad
Home
48.1% (690)
61.3% (633)
Away
49.2% (663)
52.4% (517)
By Period
Backes
Gaustad
P1
49.0%
57.9%
P2
50.2%
55.3%
P3
47.5%
58.3%
OT
33.3%
64.3%
Final 5 min
46.7%
57.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backes
56.0%▲
49.5%
48.6%
Gaustad
44.0%▼
51.0%
57.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27, 2012 | 3 | 12:52 | Offensive | David Backes |
| Mar 27, 2012 | 3 | 10:34 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Mar 27, 2012 | 3 | 04:25 | Offensive | David Backes |
| Mar 27, 2012 | 2 | 10:58 | Offensive | David Backes |
| Mar 27, 2012 | 1 | 07:00 | Offensive | David Backes |