Scouting Report
Paul Gaustad holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Vitale on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Vitale wins 55.9% vs left-shot opponents — Gaustad shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Vitale 54.6% vs Gaustad 57.6% (-2.9%)
H2H factor
Vitale leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Vitale 60.8%
Defensive zone
Gaustad 81.1%
Neutral zone
Gaustad 65.9%
Result
Paul Gaustad favored at 54.0%
46.0%
54.0%
Vitale
Gaustad
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
4
(10 meetings)
6
4
Vitale
Gaustad
Last 10: Vitale 6-4 Gaustad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Vitale
3
2
Vitale
Gaustad
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Vitale
1
0
Vitale
Gaustad
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Vitale
Gaustad
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Vitale
Gaustad
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (1,771)
58.2% (4,334)
-2.3%
Power Play
76.0% (25)
65.4% (188)
+10.6%
Penalty Kill
47.1% (297)
54.8% (1,290)
-7.7%
On power play, Vitale has a +10.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gaustad shoots left. Vitale is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (1,430).
Vitale shoots right. Gaustad is 57.2% vs right-shot opponents (2,052).
Home / Away
Vitale
Gaustad
Home
56.1% (1,050)
59.5% (2,929)
Away
53.5% (1,048)
55.9% (2,897)
By Period
Vitale
Gaustad
P1
52.9%
58.2%
P2
53.8%
56.4%
P3
57.5%
58.3%
OT
72.7%
66.0%
Final 5 min
55.0%
57.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Vitale
44.0%▼
48.0%
54.8%
Gaustad
44.0%▼
51.0%
57.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2015 | 3 | 03:21 | Offensive | Joe Vitale |
| Mar 9, 2015 | 3 | 03:17 | Offensive | Joe Vitale |
| Nov 15, 2013 | 2 | 19:42 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 17, 2011 | 3 | 12:10 | Defensive | Joe Vitale |
| Dec 17, 2011 | 2 | 06:31 | Offensive | Joe Vitale |
| Dec 17, 2011 | 1 | 17:30 | Neutral | Joe Vitale |
| Oct 15, 2011 | 2 | 18:22 | Offensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Oct 15, 2011 | 2 | 11:20 | Neutral | Joe Vitale |
| Oct 15, 2011 | 1 | 18:19 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Oct 15, 2011 | 1 | 18:10 | Offensive | Paul Gaustad |