Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Gaustad on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Toews wins 58.3% vs left-shot opponents — Gaustad shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 58.0% vs Gaustad 54.7% (+3.3%)
H2H factor
Gaustad leads 9-3 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Toews 71.4%
Defensive zone
Gaustad 94.6%
Neutral zone
Gaustad 75.6%
Result
Paul Gaustad favored at 73.4%
26.6%
73.4%
Toews
Gaustad
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
9
(12 meetings)
3
9
Toews
Gaustad
Last 10: Toews 3-7 Gaustad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
3
0
Toews
Gaustad
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaustad
0
6
Toews
Gaustad
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gaustad
0
3
Toews
Gaustad
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Gaustad
Edge
Even Strength
58.2% (1,200)
56.2% (603)
+2.0%
Power Play
62.8% (250)
71.4% (21)
-8.6%
Penalty Kill
53.7% (123)
49.3% (148)
+4.4%
On power play, Gaustad has a +8.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gaustad shoots left. Toews is 58.3% vs left-shot opponents (943).
Toews shoots left. Gaustad is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (485).
Home / Away
Toews
Gaustad
Home
59.8% (805)
55.5% (366)
Away
57.3% (768)
55.2% (406)
By Period
Toews
Gaustad
P1
60.2%
55.0%
P2
60.7%
56.9%
P3
55.9%
53.7%
OT
44.8%
62.5%
Final 5 min
61.8%
55.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
58.6%
Gaustad
44.0%▼
51.0%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2016 | 3 | 15:23 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 25, 2016 | 1 | 10:55 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 19, 2016 | 3 | 17:17 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Jan 12, 2016 | 1 | 19:59 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 10, 2015 | 3 | 17:03 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 10, 2015 | 3 | 00:23 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 10, 2015 | 2 | 13:29 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 10, 2015 | 1 | 11:02 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 8, 2015 | 3 | 14:00 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 8, 2015 | 2 | 13:41 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 8, 2015 | 1 | 07:47 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 8, 2015 | 1 | 03:01 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |