Scouting Report
Paul Gaustad holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Wellwood on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Wellwood wins 55.3% vs left-shot opponents — Gaustad shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Wellwood 52.9% vs Gaustad 56.7% (-3.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Wellwood 82.2%
Defensive zone
Gaustad 91.3%
Neutral zone
Gaustad 61.5%
Result
Kyle Wellwood favored at 52.8%
52.8%
47.2%
Wellwood
Gaustad
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Wellwood
Gaustad
Last 5: Wellwood 3-2 Gaustad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Wellwood
3
0
Wellwood
Gaustad
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaustad
0
2
Wellwood
Gaustad
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Wellwood
Gaustad
Edge
Even Strength
52.2% (184)
57.8% (854)
-5.6%
Power Play
58.7% (63)
56.0% (25)
+2.7%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (2)
55.1% (263)
-5.1%
On even strength, Gaustad has a +5.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gaustad shoots left. Wellwood is 55.3% vs left-shot opponents (190).
Wellwood shoots right. Gaustad is 56.3% vs right-shot opponents (416).
Home / Away
Wellwood
Gaustad
Home
57.4% (141)
61.3% (633)
Away
49.5% (109)
52.4% (517)
By Period
Wellwood
Gaustad
P1
44.3%
57.9%
P2
63.6%
55.3%
P3
53.2%
58.3%
OT
50.0%
64.3%
Final 5 min
47.4%
57.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Wellwood
54.0%▼
58.0%
54.0%
Gaustad
44.0%▼
51.0%
57.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2012 | 3 | 05:47 | Offensive | Kyle Wellwood |
| Mar 24, 2012 | 2 | 08:35 | Offensive | Kyle Wellwood |
| Mar 24, 2012 | 1 | 15:45 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Mar 24, 2012 | 1 | 12:52 | Offensive | Kyle Wellwood |
| Mar 24, 2012 | 1 | 10:08 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |