Scouting Report
Paul Gaustad holds a +5.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Marleau on offensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Marleau wins 56.9% vs left-shot opponents — Gaustad shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Marleau 52.2% vs Gaustad 57.4% (-5.1%)
H2H factor
Marleau leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Marleau 53.7%
Defensive zone
Gaustad 82.0%
Neutral zone
Gaustad 67.1%
Result
Paul Gaustad favored at 57.0%
43.0%
57.0%
Marleau
Gaustad
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
4
(10 meetings)
6
4
Marleau
Gaustad
Last 10: Marleau 6-4 Gaustad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Marleau
6
1
Marleau
Gaustad
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaustad
0
3
Marleau
Gaustad
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Marleau
Gaustad
Edge
Even Strength
56.4% (234)
59.3% (913)
-2.9%
Power Play
60.0% (10)
72.2% (18)
-12.2%
Penalty Kill
39.1% (64)
52.8% (269)
-13.7%
On penalty kill, Gaustad has a +13.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gaustad shoots left. Marleau is 56.9% vs left-shot opponents (174).
Marleau shoots left. Gaustad is 59.5% vs left-shot opponents (780).
Home / Away
Marleau
Gaustad
Home
52.7% (167)
58.6% (604)
Away
53.2% (141)
57.4% (596)
By Period
Marleau
Gaustad
P1
51.5%
61.5%
P2
51.2%
55.7%
P3
55.9%
56.6%
OT
44.4%
75.0%
Final 5 min
57.1%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Marleau
50.0%▲
47.0%
52.9%
Gaustad
44.0%▼
51.0%
58.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2014 | 3 | 11:20 | Offensive | Patrick Marleau |
| Apr 5, 2014 | 3 | 10:50 | Offensive | Patrick Marleau |
| Apr 5, 2014 | 3 | 04:59 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Apr 5, 2014 | 3 | 04:56 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Apr 5, 2014 | 3 | 02:46 | Offensive | Patrick Marleau |
| Apr 5, 2014 | 2 | 19:12 | Offensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Jan 7, 2014 | 3 | 07:31 | Offensive | Patrick Marleau |
| Jan 7, 2014 | 3 | 02:49 | Offensive | Patrick Marleau |
| Jan 7, 2014 | 1 | 07:25 | Offensive | Patrick Marleau |
| Dec 14, 2013 | 1 | 05:26 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |