Scouting Report
Paul Gaustad holds a +13.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Gaustad on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Berglund wins 44.2% vs left-shot opponents — Gaustad shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Berglund 46.8% vs Gaustad 57.9% (-13.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Berglund 82.2%
Defensive zone
Gaustad 63.2%
Neutral zone
Berglund 61.9%
Result
Patrik Berglund favored at 62.6%
62.6%
37.4%
Berglund
Gaustad
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Berglund
Gaustad
Last 9: Berglund 3-6 Gaustad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Berglund
3
1
Berglund
Gaustad
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaustad
0
3
Berglund
Gaustad
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gaustad
0
2
Berglund
Gaustad
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Berglund
Gaustad
Edge
Even Strength
46.3% (490)
59.8% (353)
-13.5%
Power Play
52.4% (63)
66.7% (15)
-14.3%
Penalty Kill
38.0% (50)
58.0% (81)
-20.0%
On penalty kill, Gaustad has a +20.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gaustad shoots left. Berglund is 44.2% vs left-shot opponents (428).
Berglund shoots left. Gaustad is 61.2% vs left-shot opponents (309).
Home / Away
Berglund
Gaustad
Home
49.8% (295)
62.1% (195)
Away
42.9% (308)
57.9% (254)
By Period
Berglund
Gaustad
P1
47.5%
59.4%
P2
46.4%
58.1%
P3
45.7%
61.3%
OT
20.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
53.6%
57.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Berglund
60.0%▲
57.0%
46.3%
Gaustad
44.0%▼
51.0%
59.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 5, 2013 | 3 | 17:07 | Offensive | Patrik Berglund |
| Feb 5, 2013 | 3 | 15:42 | Offensive | Patrik Berglund |
| Feb 5, 2013 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 5, 2013 | 2 | 19:38 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 5, 2013 | 2 | 14:16 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 5, 2013 | 2 | 11:44 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 5, 2013 | 2 | 05:10 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 5, 2013 | 1 | 11:32 | Offensive | Patrik Berglund |
| Feb 5, 2013 | 1 | 03:05 | Offensive | Paul Gaustad |