Scouting Report
Paul Gaustad holds a +7.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Gaustad on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Gaustad wins 58.0% vs left-shot opponents — Umberger shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gaustad 57.6% vs Umberger 50.1% (+7.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Umberger 79.1%
Defensive zone
Gaustad 88.9%
Neutral zone
Gaustad 82.1%
Result
Paul Gaustad favored at 73.1%
73.1%
26.9%
Gaustad
Umberger
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Gaustad
Umberger
Last 9: Gaustad 6-3 Umberger
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Umberger
0
2
Gaustad
Umberger
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaustad
6
0
Gaustad
Umberger
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Umberger
0
1
Gaustad
Umberger
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gaustad
Umberger
Edge
Even Strength
58.2% (4,334)
50.9% (387)
+7.3%
Power Play
65.4% (188)
49.8% (251)
+15.6%
Penalty Kill
54.8% (1,290)
46.6% (58)
+8.2%
On power play, Gaustad has a +15.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Umberger shoots left. Gaustad is 58.0% vs left-shot opponents (3,774).
Gaustad shoots left. Umberger is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (479).
Home / Away
Gaustad
Umberger
Home
59.5% (2,929)
52.3% (365)
Away
55.9% (2,897)
47.6% (336)
By Period
Gaustad
Umberger
P1
58.2%
50.0%
P2
56.4%
49.3%
P3
58.3%
50.0%
OT
66.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
57.8%
48.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gaustad
44.0%▼
51.0%
57.7%
Umberger
50.0%▼
53.0%
50.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 27, 2013 | 2 | 10:39 | Neutral | R.J. Umberger |
| Apr 4, 2013 | 2 | 14:52 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Jan 19, 2013 | OT | 01:34 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Jan 19, 2013 | 3 | 11:49 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Jan 19, 2013 | 2 | 13:32 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Jan 19, 2013 | 2 | 09:53 | Offensive | R.J. Umberger |
| Oct 27, 2011 | 1 | 10:04 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Apr 9, 2011 | 3 | 19:11 | Offensive | R.J. Umberger |
| Apr 9, 2011 | 2 | 19:39 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |