Scouting Report
Paul Gaustad holds a +12.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Gaustad on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Gaustad wins 58.0% vs left-shot opponents — Smyth shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gaustad 57.6% vs Smyth 45.8% (+12.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Gaustad 54.8%
Defensive zone
Gaustad 91.9%
Neutral zone
Gaustad 90.3%
Result
Paul Gaustad favored at 86.8%
86.8%
13.2%
Gaustad
Smyth
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
1
(8 meetings)
7
1
Gaustad
Smyth
Last 8: Gaustad 7-1 Smyth
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Smyth
0
1
Gaustad
Smyth
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaustad
5
0
Gaustad
Smyth
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gaustad
2
0
Gaustad
Smyth
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gaustad
Smyth
Edge
Even Strength
58.2% (4,334)
45.2% (456)
+13.0%
Power Play
65.4% (188)
51.8% (164)
+13.6%
Penalty Kill
54.8% (1,290)
23.3% (43)
+31.5%
On penalty kill, Gaustad has a +31.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smyth shoots left. Gaustad is 58.0% vs left-shot opponents (3,774).
Gaustad shoots left. Smyth is 45.9% vs left-shot opponents (434).
Home / Away
Gaustad
Smyth
Home
59.5% (2,929)
49.7% (340)
Away
55.9% (2,897)
40.5% (326)
By Period
Gaustad
Smyth
P1
58.2%
48.3%
P2
56.4%
41.7%
P3
58.3%
46.5%
OT
66.0%
25.0%
Final 5 min
57.8%
47.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gaustad
44.0%▼
51.0%
57.7%
Smyth
50.0%▬
50.5%
45.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2013 | 2 | 10:08 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Mar 8, 2013 | 2 | 10:00 | Offensive | Ryan Smyth |
| Mar 8, 2013 | 1 | 18:51 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Mar 8, 2013 | 1 | 15:56 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Mar 8, 2013 | 1 | 06:07 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Jan 3, 2012 | 2 | 08:04 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Nov 19, 2010 | 2 | 01:22 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Nov 19, 2010 | 1 | 17:03 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |