Scouting Report
Paul Gaustad holds a +11.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Gagner on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 12 meetings). Gaustad wins 57.2% vs right-shot opponents — Gagner shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gaustad 57.6% vs Gagner 46.0% (+11.8%)
H2H factor
Gaustad leads 19-17 in 36 meetings
Offensive zone
Gagner 82.6%
Defensive zone
Gaustad 79.3%
Neutral zone
Gaustad 69.8%
Result
Paul Gaustad favored at 56.5%
56.5%
43.5%
Gaustad
Gagner
Head-to-Head Record
19
-
17
(36 meetings)
19
17
Gaustad
Gagner
Last 10: Gaustad 8-2 Gagner
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gagner
0
12
Gaustad
Gagner
12 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaustad
13
3
Gaustad
Gagner
16 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gaustad
6
2
Gaustad
Gagner
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gaustad
Gagner
Edge
Even Strength
58.2% (4,334)
45.4% (4,699)
+12.8%
Power Play
65.4% (188)
51.5% (928)
+13.9%
Penalty Kill
54.8% (1,290)
35.0% (226)
+19.8%
On penalty kill, Gaustad has a +19.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gagner shoots right. Gaustad is 57.2% vs right-shot opponents (2,052).
Gaustad shoots left. Gagner is 45.4% vs left-shot opponents (4,184).
Home / Away
Gaustad
Gagner
Home
59.5% (2,929)
48.7% (3,025)
Away
55.9% (2,897)
43.0% (2,843)
By Period
Gaustad
Gagner
P1
58.2%
44.6%
P2
56.4%
46.1%
P3
58.3%
47.3%
OT
66.0%
42.0%
Final 5 min
57.8%
45.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gaustad
44.0%▼
51.0%
57.7%
Gagner
48.0%▲
41.5%
45.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2015 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sam Gagner |
| Mar 9, 2015 | 1 | 18:08 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Oct 21, 2014 | 3 | 18:18 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Oct 21, 2014 | 3 | 14:06 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Oct 21, 2014 | 3 | 06:35 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Oct 21, 2014 | 2 | 05:48 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Oct 21, 2014 | 1 | 13:07 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Oct 21, 2014 | 1 | 13:01 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Oct 21, 2014 | 1 | 12:45 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Mar 18, 2014 | 3 | 06:38 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Mar 18, 2014 | 2 | 19:48 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Mar 18, 2014 | 1 | 14:11 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Mar 18, 2014 | 1 | 04:34 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |
| Mar 18, 2014 | 1 | 04:26 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Mar 18, 2014 | 1 | 00:48 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Jan 26, 2014 | 3 | 11:46 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |
| Jan 26, 2014 | 2 | 08:26 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Jan 26, 2014 | 2 | 00:48 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Jan 26, 2014 | 1 | 16:14 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Jan 26, 2014 | 1 | 13:56 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |