Scouting Report
Paul Gaustad holds a +8.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Gaustad on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Gaustad wins 58.0% vs left-shot opponents — Horcoff shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gaustad 57.6% vs Horcoff 49.6% (+8.2%)
H2H factor
Gaustad leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Horcoff 65.4%
Defensive zone
Gaustad 81.6%
Neutral zone
Gaustad 73.7%
Result
Paul Gaustad favored at 62.3%
62.3%
37.7%
Gaustad
Horcoff
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
4
(11 meetings)
7
4
Gaustad
Horcoff
Last 10: Gaustad 7-3 Horcoff
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Horcoff
1
3
Gaustad
Horcoff
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaustad
4
0
Gaustad
Horcoff
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gaustad
2
1
Gaustad
Horcoff
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gaustad
Horcoff
Edge
Even Strength
58.2% (4,334)
50.6% (3,133)
+7.6%
Power Play
65.4% (188)
51.4% (555)
+14.0%
Penalty Kill
54.8% (1,290)
43.0% (567)
+11.8%
On power play, Gaustad has a +14.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Horcoff shoots left. Gaustad is 58.0% vs left-shot opponents (3,774).
Gaustad shoots left. Horcoff is 48.8% vs left-shot opponents (3,000).
Home / Away
Gaustad
Horcoff
Home
59.5% (2,929)
51.1% (2,199)
Away
55.9% (2,897)
48.0% (2,104)
By Period
Gaustad
Horcoff
P1
58.2%
48.2%
P2
56.4%
49.5%
P3
58.3%
50.9%
OT
66.0%
51.9%
Final 5 min
57.8%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gaustad
44.0%▼
51.0%
57.7%
Horcoff
62.0%▲
55.5%
49.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2015 | 3 | 18:09 | Offensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Apr 11, 2015 | 2 | 15:10 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Apr 11, 2015 | 2 | 11:22 | Offensive | Shawn Horcoff |
| Nov 6, 2014 | 3 | 01:49 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Nov 6, 2014 | 2 | 16:51 | Offensive | Shawn Horcoff |
| Nov 6, 2014 | 1 | 15:26 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Jan 20, 2014 | 1 | 19:01 | Offensive | Shawn Horcoff |
| Jan 20, 2014 | 1 | 18:55 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Jan 20, 2014 | 1 | 01:43 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 27, 2013 | 2 | 16:06 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Jan 3, 2012 | 2 | 09:24 | Neutral | Shawn Horcoff |