Scouting Report
Paul Gaustad holds a +6.2% FO% edge overall. Gaustad wins 55.1% vs left-shot opponents — Horcoff shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gaustad 55.9% vs Horcoff 50.2% (+6.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Horcoff 88.8%
Defensive zone
Gaustad 90.2%
Neutral zone
Gaustad 60.0%
Result
Paul Gaustad favored at 52.6%
52.6%
47.4%
Gaustad
Horcoff
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Gaustad
Horcoff
Last 5: Gaustad 3-2 Horcoff
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Horcoff
0
2
Gaustad
Horcoff
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaustad
2
0
Gaustad
Horcoff
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gaustad
1
0
Gaustad
Horcoff
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gaustad
Horcoff
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (821)
50.5% (374)
+7.2%
Power Play
56.3% (16)
55.0% (60)
+1.3%
Penalty Kill
52.3% (260)
39.5% (38)
+12.8%
On penalty kill, Gaustad has a +12.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Horcoff shoots left. Gaustad is 55.1% vs left-shot opponents (699).
Gaustad shoots left. Horcoff is 48.6% vs left-shot opponents (315).
Home / Away
Gaustad
Horcoff
Home
58.9% (577)
50.2% (263)
Away
53.7% (520)
50.2% (209)
By Period
Gaustad
Horcoff
P1
53.1%
49.0%
P2
57.9%
53.2%
P3
57.8%
48.7%
OT
60.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
60.8%
51.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gaustad
44.0%▼
51.0%
56.4%
Horcoff
62.0%▲
55.5%
50.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2015 | 2 | 15:10 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Apr 11, 2015 | 2 | 11:22 | Offensive | Shawn Horcoff |
| Nov 6, 2014 | 3 | 01:49 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Nov 6, 2014 | 2 | 16:51 | Offensive | Shawn Horcoff |
| Nov 6, 2014 | 1 | 15:26 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |