Scouting Report
Paul Gaustad holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Gaustad on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Gaustad wins 55.1% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gaustad 54.7% vs Stamkos 50.0% (+5.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 85.5%
Defensive zone
Gaustad 91.8%
Neutral zone
Gaustad 75.8%
Result
Paul Gaustad favored at 72.5%
72.5%
27.5%
Gaustad
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Gaustad
Stamkos
Last 8: Gaustad 6-2 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
2
Gaustad
Stamkos
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaustad
6
0
Gaustad
Stamkos
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gaustad
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (603)
49.9% (771)
+6.3%
Power Play
71.4% (21)
55.4% (74)
+16.0%
Penalty Kill
49.3% (148)
45.1% (82)
+4.2%
On power play, Gaustad has a +16.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Gaustad is 55.1% vs right-shot opponents (287).
Gaustad shoots left. Stamkos is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (653).
Home / Away
Gaustad
Stamkos
Home
55.5% (366)
50.7% (487)
Away
55.2% (406)
49.1% (440)
By Period
Gaustad
Stamkos
P1
55.0%
46.1%
P2
56.9%
52.0%
P3
53.7%
51.1%
OT
62.5%
54.5%
Final 5 min
55.1%
55.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gaustad
44.0%▼
51.0%
55.3%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 12, 2016 | 3 | 06:43 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 12, 2016 | 2 | 00:19 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Oct 20, 2015 | 3 | 15:01 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Oct 20, 2015 | 3 | 14:47 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 20, 2015 | 3 | 03:32 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Oct 20, 2015 | 1 | 16:02 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 20, 2015 | 1 | 14:12 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Oct 20, 2015 | 1 | 03:49 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |