Scouting Report
Paul Gaustad holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Gaustad on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Gaustad wins 55.1% vs right-shot opponents — Mitchell shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gaustad 54.7% vs Mitchell 51.4% (+3.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mitchell 63.7%
Defensive zone
Gaustad 83.1%
Neutral zone
Gaustad 78.5%
Result
Paul Gaustad favored at 83.1%
83.1%
16.9%
Gaustad
Mitchell
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
0
(5 meetings)
5
0
Gaustad
Mitchell
Last 5: Gaustad 5-0 Mitchell
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaustad
5
0
Gaustad
Mitchell
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gaustad
Mitchell
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (603)
52.2% (590)
+4.0%
Power Play
71.4% (21)
77.8% (9)
-6.4%
Penalty Kill
49.3% (148)
46.6% (118)
+2.7%
On power play, Mitchell has a +6.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Mitchell shoots right. Gaustad is 55.1% vs right-shot opponents (287).
Gaustad shoots left. Mitchell is 51.6% vs left-shot opponents (535).
Home / Away
Gaustad
Mitchell
Home
55.5% (366)
53.1% (356)
Away
55.2% (406)
50.1% (361)
By Period
Gaustad
Mitchell
P1
55.0%
60.1%
P2
56.9%
48.3%
P3
53.7%
47.2%
OT
62.5%
50.0%
Final 5 min
55.1%
52.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gaustad
44.0%▼
51.0%
55.3%
Mitchell
38.0%▼
45.0%
51.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2016 | OT | 04:54 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 22, 2016 | 2 | 15:21 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 22, 2016 | 1 | 16:41 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 21, 2015 | 3 | 19:14 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 21, 2015 | 3 | 19:08 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |