Scouting Report
Paul Gaustad holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Gaustad on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Gaustad wins 60.4% vs right-shot opponents — Zajac shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gaustad 59.0% vs Zajac 54.9% (+4.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zajac 66.1%
Defensive zone
Gaustad 78.7%
Neutral zone
Gaustad 59.8%
Result
Paul Gaustad favored at 70.6%
70.6%
29.4%
Gaustad
Zajac
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
Gaustad
Zajac
Last 7: Gaustad 6-1 Zajac
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaustad
4
0
Gaustad
Zajac
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gaustad
2
1
Gaustad
Zajac
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gaustad
Zajac
Edge
Even Strength
58.6% (790)
53.9% (958)
+4.7%
Power Play
66.7% (93)
67.1% (146)
-0.4%
Penalty Kill
61.0% (269)
52.5% (139)
+8.5%
On penalty kill, Gaustad has a +8.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zajac shoots right. Gaustad is 60.4% vs right-shot opponents (391).
Gaustad shoots left. Zajac is 57.3% vs left-shot opponents (888).
Home / Away
Gaustad
Zajac
Home
60.6% (554)
55.5% (627)
Away
58.9% (604)
55.1% (651)
By Period
Gaustad
Zajac
P1
61.3%
51.7%
P2
55.5%
58.5%
P3
62.3%
56.0%
OT
75.0%
55.6%
Final 5 min
58.8%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gaustad
44.0%▼
51.0%
59.8%
Zajac
62.0%▲
52.5%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2011 | 3 | 19:49 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Mar 26, 2011 | 3 | 14:44 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Mar 26, 2011 | 3 | 02:52 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Nov 10, 2010 | 3 | 11:55 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Nov 10, 2010 | 2 | 12:33 | Neutral | Travis Zajac |
| Oct 23, 2010 | 1 | 17:12 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Oct 23, 2010 | 1 | 16:50 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |