Scouting Report
Paul Gaustad holds a +13.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Gaustad on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Gaustad wins 56.3% vs right-shot opponents — Lewis shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gaustad 56.7% vs Lewis 45.8% (+13.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lewis 87.8%
Defensive zone
Gaustad 50.3%
Neutral zone
Lewis 70.7%
Result
Trevor Lewis favored at 69.2%
30.8%
69.2%
Gaustad
Lewis
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Gaustad
Lewis
Last 8: Gaustad 3-5 Lewis
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gaustad
2
1
Gaustad
Lewis
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lewis
1
2
Gaustad
Lewis
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lewis
0
2
Gaustad
Lewis
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gaustad
Lewis
Edge
Even Strength
57.8% (854)
45.1% (173)
+12.7%
Power Play
56.0% (25)
37.5% (8)
+18.5%
Penalty Kill
55.1% (263)
35.3% (17)
+19.8%
On penalty kill, Gaustad has a +19.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lewis shoots right. Gaustad is 56.3% vs right-shot opponents (416).
Gaustad shoots left. Lewis is 43.7% vs left-shot opponents (142).
Home / Away
Gaustad
Lewis
Home
61.3% (633)
48.3% (89)
Away
52.4% (517)
40.0% (110)
By Period
Gaustad
Lewis
P1
57.9%
48.5%
P2
55.3%
45.1%
P3
58.3%
35.6%
OT
64.3%
100.0%
Final 5 min
57.2%
42.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gaustad
44.0%▼
51.0%
57.3%
Lewis
34.0%▼
46.5%
43.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2012 | 3 | 01:00 | Offensive | Trevor Lewis |
| Oct 8, 2011 | 3 | 07:13 | Offensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Oct 8, 2011 | 3 | 01:56 | Neutral | Trevor Lewis |
| Oct 8, 2011 | 2 | 02:40 | Neutral | Trevor Lewis |
| Oct 8, 2011 | 1 | 13:09 | Defensive | Trevor Lewis |
| Oct 8, 2011 | 1 | 09:14 | Defensive | Trevor Lewis |
| Oct 8, 2011 | 1 | 06:14 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Oct 8, 2011 | 1 | 02:37 | Offensive | Paul Gaustad |