Scouting Report
Paul Gaustad holds a +13.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Kennedy on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Gaustad wins 57.2% vs right-shot opponents — Kennedy shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gaustad 57.6% vs Kennedy 45.0% (+13.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kennedy 90.5%
Defensive zone
Kennedy 51.6%
Neutral zone
Kennedy 77.8%
Result
Tyler Kennedy favored at 83.1%
16.9%
83.1%
Gaustad
Kennedy
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Gaustad
Kennedy
Last 7: Gaustad 2-5 Kennedy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kennedy
0
5
Gaustad
Kennedy
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaustad
1
0
Gaustad
Kennedy
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gaustad
1
0
Gaustad
Kennedy
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gaustad
Kennedy
Edge
Even Strength
58.2% (4,334)
43.7% (311)
+14.5%
Power Play
65.4% (188)
46.3% (80)
+19.1%
Penalty Kill
54.8% (1,290)
25.0% (8)
+29.8%
On penalty kill, Gaustad has a +29.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kennedy shoots right. Gaustad is 57.2% vs right-shot opponents (2,052).
Gaustad shoots left. Kennedy is 42.2% vs left-shot opponents (306).
Home / Away
Gaustad
Kennedy
Home
59.5% (2,929)
43.2% (192)
Away
55.9% (2,897)
44.2% (208)
By Period
Gaustad
Kennedy
P1
58.2%
39.2%
P2
56.4%
41.0%
P3
58.3%
50.0%
OT
66.0%
54.5%
Final 5 min
57.8%
41.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gaustad
44.0%▼
51.0%
57.7%
Kennedy
38.0%▼
41.0%
43.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2016 | 2 | 02:00 | Offensive | Tyler Kennedy |
| Mar 3, 2016 | 1 | 10:02 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 17, 2011 | 3 | 13:58 | Offensive | Tyler Kennedy |
| Dec 17, 2011 | 3 | 13:52 | Offensive | Tyler Kennedy |
| Dec 17, 2011 | 3 | 10:13 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Dec 17, 2011 | 2 | 12:52 | Offensive | Tyler Kennedy |
| Dec 17, 2011 | 2 | 09:03 | Offensive | Tyler Kennedy |