Scouting Report
Paul Gaustad holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Gaustad on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Gaustad wins 57.2% vs right-shot opponents — Seguin shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gaustad 57.6% vs Seguin 53.6% (+4.1%)
H2H factor
Seguin leads 17-17 in 34 meetings
Offensive zone
Seguin 85.7%
Defensive zone
Gaustad 67.0%
Neutral zone
Seguin 61.4%
Result
Tyler Seguin favored at 67.1%
32.9%
67.1%
Gaustad
Seguin
Head-to-Head Record
17
-
17
(34 meetings)
17
17
Gaustad
Seguin
Last 10: Gaustad 2-8 Seguin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Seguin
5
10
Gaustad
Seguin
15 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaustad
6
0
Gaustad
Seguin
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Seguin
6
7
Gaustad
Seguin
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gaustad
Seguin
Edge
Even Strength
58.2% (4,334)
53.7% (8,071)
+4.5%
Power Play
65.4% (188)
55.9% (810)
+9.5%
Penalty Kill
54.8% (1,290)
49.3% (762)
+5.5%
On power play, Gaustad has a +9.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Seguin shoots right. Gaustad is 57.2% vs right-shot opponents (2,052).
Gaustad shoots left. Seguin is 53.4% vs left-shot opponents (6,798).
Home / Away
Gaustad
Seguin
Home
59.5% (2,929)
55.9% (4,759)
Away
55.9% (2,897)
51.4% (4,885)
By Period
Gaustad
Seguin
P1
58.2%
52.8%
P2
56.4%
53.3%
P3
58.3%
54.7%
OT
66.0%
54.7%
Final 5 min
57.8%
54.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gaustad
44.0%▼
51.0%
57.7%
Seguin
42.0%▼
54.0%
53.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2016 | 3 | 17:42 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Mar 1, 2016 | 2 | 05:54 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Mar 1, 2016 | 1 | 17:18 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Feb 15, 2016 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Feb 15, 2016 | 2 | 09:10 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Feb 15, 2016 | 2 | 08:56 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Feb 15, 2016 | 2 | 07:16 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Feb 15, 2016 | 1 | 11:12 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Dec 31, 2015 | 3 | 11:48 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Dec 31, 2015 | 2 | 13:58 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Dec 31, 2015 | 2 | 06:51 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Jan 8, 2015 | 3 | 17:07 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Jan 8, 2015 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Jan 8, 2015 | 1 | 14:27 | Neutral | Tyler Seguin |
| Jan 8, 2015 | 1 | 09:21 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Nov 6, 2014 | 3 | 05:20 | Defensive | Paul Gaustad |
| Nov 6, 2014 | 2 | 00:47 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Nov 6, 2014 | 1 | 01:03 | Offensive | Tyler Seguin |
| Oct 11, 2014 | 3 | 19:57 | Neutral | Paul Gaustad |
| Oct 11, 2014 | 3 | 19:04 | Offensive | Paul Gaustad |