Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.5% vs 55.1%). Look for McDonald on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). McDonald wins 54.1% vs left-shot opponents — Stastny shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDonald 54.8% vs Stastny 55.1% (+0.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDonald 63.9%
Defensive zone
Stastny 69.0%
Neutral zone
Stastny 52.3%
Result
Paul Stastny favored at 52.4%
47.6%
52.4%
McDonald
Stastny
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
McDonald
Stastny
Last 5: McDonald 2-3 Stastny
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
0
1
McDonald
Stastny
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
0
1
McDonald
Stastny
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDonald
2
1
McDonald
Stastny
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDonald
Stastny
Edge
Even Strength
55.5% (436)
54.6% (10,616)
+0.9%
Power Play
56.5% (177)
59.1% (1,994)
-2.6%
Penalty Kill
47.7% (44)
52.9% (1,119)
-5.2%
On penalty kill, Stastny has a +5.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stastny shoots left. McDonald is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (436).
McDonald shoots left. Stastny is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (8,871).
Home / Away
McDonald
Stastny
Home
54.9% (297)
55.9% (7,073)
Away
56.0% (366)
54.3% (6,705)
By Period
McDonald
Stastny
P1
58.5%
56.3%
P2
52.5%
55.4%
P3
54.1%
53.5%
OT
73.7%
62.9%
Final 5 min
50.3%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDonald
56.0%▲
48.0%
55.5%
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
55.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 23, 2013 | 3 | 10:42 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Apr 23, 2013 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Apr 21, 2013 | 2 | 01:33 | Neutral | Andy McDonald |
| Feb 22, 2011 | 3 | 06:23 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 22, 2011 | 3 | 02:30 | Neutral | Andy McDonald |