Scouting Report
Paul Stastny holds a +8.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Stastny on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Fraser wins 45.1% vs left-shot opponents — Stastny shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Fraser 46.7% vs Stastny 55.1% (-8.7%)
H2H factor
Stastny leads 13-8 in 21 meetings
Offensive zone
Fraser 74.3%
Defensive zone
Fraser 73.2%
Neutral zone
Fraser 72.3%
Result
Colin Fraser favored at 73.0%
73.0%
27.0%
Fraser
Stastny
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
13
(21 meetings)
8
13
Fraser
Stastny
Last 10: Fraser 4-6 Stastny
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
1
4
Fraser
Stastny
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
2
3
Fraser
Stastny
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stastny
5
6
Fraser
Stastny
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Fraser
Stastny
Edge
Even Strength
48.0% (1,036)
54.6% (10,616)
-6.6%
Power Play
58.3% (36)
59.1% (1,994)
-0.8%
Penalty Kill
35.8% (187)
52.9% (1,119)
-17.1%
On penalty kill, Stastny has a +17.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stastny shoots left. Fraser is 45.1% vs left-shot opponents (880).
Fraser shoots left. Stastny is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (8,871).
Home / Away
Fraser
Stastny
Home
48.6% (661)
55.9% (7,073)
Away
44.0% (602)
54.3% (6,705)
By Period
Fraser
Stastny
P1
46.7%
56.3%
P2
46.4%
55.4%
P3
46.2%
53.5%
OT
33.3%
62.9%
Final 5 min
46.3%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Fraser
44.0%▼
49.5%
46.4%
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
55.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 2013 | 3 | 08:32 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Dec 21, 2013 | 3 | 08:15 | Neutral | Colin Fraser |
| Dec 21, 2013 | 2 | 14:02 | Neutral | Colin Fraser |
| Dec 21, 2013 | 1 | 19:28 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 23, 2013 | 2 | 02:51 | Neutral | Colin Fraser |
| Jan 22, 2013 | 3 | 01:58 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 22, 2013 | 1 | 05:35 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 2, 2012 | 3 | 07:57 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 2, 2012 | 3 | 05:41 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 5, 2011 | 3 | 12:13 | Defensive | Colin Fraser |
| Mar 5, 2011 | 3 | 09:12 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 5, 2011 | 2 | 11:46 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 5, 2011 | 2 | 07:32 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 23, 2011 | 3 | 11:08 | Neutral | Colin Fraser |
| Feb 23, 2011 | 3 | 01:55 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 23, 2011 | 2 | 15:49 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Dec 30, 2010 | 2 | 16:05 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Dec 30, 2010 | 2 | 15:56 | Offensive | Colin Fraser |
| Dec 30, 2010 | 1 | 17:56 | Defensive | Colin Fraser |
| Dec 30, 2010 | 1 | 14:49 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |