Scouting Report
Paul Stastny holds a +7.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Stastny on offensive-zone draws (81% H2H, 16 meetings). Roy wins 46.8% vs left-shot opponents — Stastny shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 47.4% vs Stastny 55.1% (-7.7%)
H2H factor
Stastny leads 26-12 in 38 meetings
Offensive zone
Roy 83.7%
Defensive zone
Roy 91.5%
Neutral zone
Roy 94.6%
Result
Derek Roy favored at 89.0%
89.0%
11.0%
Roy
Stastny
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
26
(38 meetings)
12
26
Roy
Stastny
Last 10: Roy 1-9 Stastny
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
3
13
Roy
Stastny
16 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Roy
7
5
Roy
Stastny
12 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stastny
2
8
Roy
Stastny
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Stastny
Edge
Even Strength
46.4% (3,031)
54.6% (10,616)
-8.2%
Power Play
53.6% (560)
59.1% (1,994)
-5.5%
Penalty Kill
46.8% (267)
52.9% (1,119)
-6.1%
On even strength, Stastny has a +8.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stastny shoots left. Roy is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (2,462).
Roy shoots left. Stastny is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (8,871).
Home / Away
Roy
Stastny
Home
49.5% (1,982)
55.9% (7,073)
Away
45.1% (1,897)
54.3% (6,705)
By Period
Roy
Stastny
P1
47.6%
56.3%
P2
46.2%
55.4%
P3
48.5%
53.5%
OT
43.1%
62.9%
Final 5 min
47.0%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
72.0%▲
47.0%
47.4%
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
55.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2015 | 3 | 07:27 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 28, 2015 | 2 | 10:44 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 28, 2015 | 1 | 11:45 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 28, 2015 | 1 | 00:49 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 13, 2015 | 1 | 16:41 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 13, 2015 | 1 | 13:16 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Nov 13, 2014 | 2 | 17:41 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Nov 13, 2014 | 2 | 04:10 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Nov 13, 2014 | 2 | 01:10 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Nov 13, 2014 | 2 | 00:57 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Nov 8, 2014 | 1 | 04:55 | Defensive | Derek Roy |
| Apr 13, 2013 | 3 | 16:30 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Apr 13, 2013 | 3 | 13:31 | Defensive | Derek Roy |
| Apr 13, 2013 | 2 | 04:30 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Apr 13, 2013 | 1 | 01:50 | Neutral | Derek Roy |
| Mar 23, 2013 | 3 | 12:43 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 23, 2013 | 3 | 12:38 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 23, 2013 | 3 | 09:50 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 23, 2013 | 2 | 10:39 | Offensive | Derek Roy |
| Mar 23, 2013 | 1 | 15:23 | Defensive | Derek Roy |