Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Stastny on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Ryan wins 57.5% vs left-shot opponents — Stastny shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 57.2% vs Stastny 54.2% (+3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stastny 72.5%
Defensive zone
Stastny 55.8%
Neutral zone
Stastny 58.3%
Result
Paul Stastny favored at 63.3%
36.7%
63.3%
Ryan
Stastny
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Ryan
Stastny
Last 7: Ryan 2-5 Stastny
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
0
3
Ryan
Stastny
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
1
2
Ryan
Stastny
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ryan
1
0
Ryan
Stastny
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Stastny
Edge
Even Strength
59.1% (594)
52.8% (657)
+6.3%
Power Play
49.1% (55)
61.0% (118)
-11.9%
Penalty Kill
57.9% (107)
61.1% (72)
-3.2%
On power play, Stastny has a +11.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stastny shoots left. Ryan is 57.5% vs left-shot opponents (544).
Ryan shoots right. Stastny is 58.4% vs right-shot opponents (286).
Home / Away
Ryan
Stastny
Home
57.0% (398)
53.0% (464)
Away
59.5% (358)
56.7% (383)
By Period
Ryan
Stastny
P1
56.2%
47.9%
P2
56.9%
59.6%
P3
61.1%
54.9%
Final 5 min
56.1%
57.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
58.2%
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
54.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2019 | 3 | 16:47 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 10, 2019 | 2 | 02:58 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 6, 2019 | 3 | 07:22 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 6, 2019 | 3 | 02:21 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 6, 2019 | 2 | 05:37 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 6, 2019 | 2 | 00:29 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 6, 2019 | 1 | 19:04 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |