Scouting Report
Paul Stastny holds a +8.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Stastny on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Ward wins 46.7% vs left-shot opponents — Stastny shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ward 48.4% vs Stastny 55.6% (-8.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Ward 66.3%
Defensive zone
Ward 74.3%
Neutral zone
Ward 66.6%
Result
Joel Ward favored at 68.3%
68.3%
31.7%
Ward
Stastny
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Ward
Stastny
Last 8: Ward 2-6 Stastny
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
0
4
Ward
Stastny
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ward
2
0
Ward
Stastny
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stastny
0
2
Ward
Stastny
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ward
Stastny
Edge
Even Strength
49.3% (353)
56.5% (967)
-7.2%
Power Play
69.0% (42)
58.4% (125)
+10.6%
Penalty Kill
34.7% (98)
50.8% (128)
-16.1%
On penalty kill, Stastny has a +16.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stastny shoots left. Ward is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (338).
Ward shoots right. Stastny is 62.2% vs right-shot opponents (455).
Home / Away
Ward
Stastny
Home
48.4% (219)
56.8% (590)
Away
47.8% (274)
55.4% (630)
By Period
Ward
Stastny
P1
43.0%
59.7%
P2
51.4%
54.8%
P3
50.0%
53.8%
OT
33.3%
60.0%
Final 5 min
41.8%
55.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ward
44.0%▼
47.0%
48.1%
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
56.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2016 | 3 | 03:23 | Defensive | Joel Ward |
| Mar 22, 2016 | 1 | 05:50 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 22, 2016 | 2 | 13:50 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 22, 2016 | 1 | 03:56 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 4, 2016 | 1 | 16:22 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 4, 2016 | 1 | 16:14 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 4, 2016 | 1 | 12:51 | Defensive | Joel Ward |
| Feb 4, 2016 | 1 | 01:06 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |