Scouting Report
Paul Stastny holds a +11.5% FO% edge overall. Bailey wins 44.5% vs left-shot opponents — Stastny shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bailey 44.6% vs Stastny 55.1% (-11.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bailey 71.5%
Defensive zone
Bailey 77.8%
Neutral zone
Bailey 79.9%
Result
Josh Bailey favored at 75.7%
75.7%
24.3%
Bailey
Stastny
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Bailey
Stastny
Last 5: Bailey 1-4 Stastny
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
0
2
Bailey
Stastny
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Bailey
Stastny
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stastny
0
1
Bailey
Stastny
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bailey
Stastny
Edge
Even Strength
44.2% (579)
55.0% (1,136)
-10.8%
Power Play
52.5% (40)
57.5% (200)
-5.0%
Penalty Kill
39.8% (108)
53.1% (64)
-13.3%
On penalty kill, Stastny has a +13.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stastny shoots left. Bailey is 44.5% vs left-shot opponents (506).
Bailey shoots left. Stastny is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (968).
Home / Away
Bailey
Stastny
Home
45.9% (375)
58.5% (744)
Away
41.8% (361)
52.1% (680)
By Period
Bailey
Stastny
P1
47.3%
57.9%
P2
40.4%
54.9%
P3
43.3%
53.0%
OT
63.6%
72.0%
Final 5 min
44.6%
57.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bailey
42.0%▬
41.0%
43.9%
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 2011 | 3 | 14:56 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Nov 10, 2011 | 3 | 14:45 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Nov 10, 2011 | 2 | 15:36 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Nov 10, 2011 | 1 | 10:26 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Nov 10, 2011 | 1 | 04:39 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |