Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.7% vs 56.6%). Look for Thompson on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Thompson wins 55.8% vs left-shot opponents — Stastny shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thompson 54.3% vs Stastny 55.4% (-0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stastny 79.0%
Defensive zone
Thompson 71.6%
Neutral zone
Stastny 53.1%
Result
Nate Thompson favored at 61.5%
61.5%
38.5%
Thompson
Stastny
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Thompson
Stastny
Last 5: Thompson 3-2 Stastny
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
0
1
Thompson
Stastny
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
3
1
Thompson
Stastny
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thompson
Stastny
Edge
Even Strength
55.5% (236)
59.2% (370)
-3.7%
Power Play
60.0% (5)
40.9% (44)
+19.1%
Penalty Kill
56.5% (46)
51.7% (58)
+4.8%
On power play, Thompson has a +19.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stastny shoots left. Thompson is 55.8% vs left-shot opponents (199).
Thompson shoots left. Stastny is 55.2% vs left-shot opponents (286).
Home / Away
Thompson
Stastny
Home
53.1% (128)
57.7% (215)
Away
57.9% (159)
55.6% (257)
By Period
Thompson
Stastny
P1
59.0%
57.7%
P2
55.4%
54.2%
P3
52.6%
57.7%
Final 5 min
51.4%
57.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thompson
64.0%▲
59.0%
55.7%
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
56.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 27, 2022 | 3 | 01:44 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Apr 27, 2022 | 2 | 17:05 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Apr 27, 2022 | 2 | 01:28 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Apr 27, 2022 | 1 | 17:28 | Defensive | Nate Thompson |
| Apr 27, 2022 | 1 | 05:13 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |