Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.1% vs 56.0%). Look for Stastny on offensive-zone draws (59% H2H, 63 meetings). Stastny wins 58.4% vs right-shot opponents — Kesler shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stastny 55.1% vs Kesler 55.9% (-0.9%)
H2H factor
Stastny leads 95-82 in 177 meetings
Offensive zone
Stastny 62.7%
Defensive zone
Kesler 65.3%
Neutral zone
Kesler 53.0%
Result
Ryan Kesler favored at 51.5%
48.5%
51.5%
Stastny
Kesler
Head-to-Head Record
95
-
82
(177 meetings)
95
82
Stastny
Kesler
Last 10: Stastny 5-5 Kesler
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
37
26
Stastny
Kesler
63 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
34
24
Stastny
Kesler
58 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kesler
24
32
Stastny
Kesler
56 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stastny
Kesler
Edge
Even Strength
54.6% (10,616)
56.4% (8,095)
-1.8%
Power Play
59.1% (1,994)
60.7% (1,437)
-1.6%
Penalty Kill
52.9% (1,119)
50.5% (1,908)
+2.4%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kesler shoots right. Stastny is 58.4% vs right-shot opponents (4,907).
Stastny shoots left. Kesler is 56.1% vs left-shot opponents (7,986).
Home / Away
Stastny
Kesler
Home
55.9% (7,073)
57.2% (5,732)
Away
54.3% (6,705)
54.7% (5,751)
By Period
Stastny
Kesler
P1
56.3%
56.5%
P2
55.4%
55.9%
P3
53.5%
56.1%
OT
62.9%
46.0%
Final 5 min
55.7%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
55.1%
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2019 | 3 | 16:43 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 1, 2019 | 3 | 11:24 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 1, 2019 | 2 | 15:34 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 4, 2019 | 3 | 19:51 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Jan 4, 2019 | 2 | 03:40 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 23, 2018 | 3 | 19:12 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 23, 2018 | 2 | 01:32 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 23, 2018 | 2 | 01:23 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 23, 2018 | 1 | 07:57 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 15, 2017 | 3 | 15:32 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 15, 2017 | 3 | 01:55 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 15, 2017 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 15, 2017 | 2 | 17:23 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 15, 2017 | 2 | 13:53 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 15, 2017 | 2 | 10:04 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 15, 2017 | 2 | 05:16 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 15, 2017 | 2 | 02:02 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 15, 2017 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 15, 2017 | 1 | 19:21 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 15, 2017 | 1 | 13:53 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |