Scouting Report
Ryan Kesler holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Stastny on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 20 meetings). Stastny wins 59.4% vs right-shot opponents — Kesler shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stastny 53.0% vs Kesler 57.0% (-4.3%)
H2H factor
Stastny leads 28-18 in 46 meetings
Offensive zone
Kesler 54.0%
Defensive zone
Kesler 68.6%
Neutral zone
Kesler 65.4%
Result
Ryan Kesler favored at 61.5%
38.5%
61.5%
Stastny
Kesler
Head-to-Head Record
28
-
18
(46 meetings)
28
18
Stastny
Kesler
Last 10: Stastny 6-4 Kesler
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
15
5
Stastny
Kesler
20 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
8
7
Stastny
Kesler
15 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kesler
5
6
Stastny
Kesler
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stastny
Kesler
Edge
Even Strength
52.2% (1,107)
57.3% (1,022)
-5.1%
Power Play
61.0% (254)
61.5% (200)
-0.5%
Penalty Kill
46.4% (138)
54.9% (257)
-8.5%
On penalty kill, Kesler has a +8.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kesler shoots right. Stastny is 59.4% vs right-shot opponents (465).
Stastny shoots left. Kesler is 57.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,091).
Home / Away
Stastny
Kesler
Home
52.5% (785)
58.6% (766)
Away
53.9% (739)
56.2% (730)
By Period
Stastny
Kesler
P1
51.3%
58.9%
P2
55.2%
56.8%
P3
52.6%
57.5%
OT
62.5%
31.6%
Final 5 min
54.9%
57.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
53.1%
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
57.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2011 | 3 | 18:26 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 16, 2011 | 3 | 18:12 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 16, 2011 | 3 | 18:00 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 16, 2011 | 3 | 13:37 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 16, 2011 | 3 | 10:36 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 16, 2011 | 3 | 00:16 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 16, 2011 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 16, 2011 | 2 | 08:17 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 16, 2011 | 2 | 08:08 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 16, 2011 | 1 | 14:37 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Mar 16, 2011 | 1 | 13:43 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 16, 2011 | 1 | 10:10 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 18, 2011 | 3 | 18:54 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Jan 18, 2011 | 3 | 17:19 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 18, 2011 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 18, 2011 | 2 | 01:36 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Jan 18, 2011 | 1 | 10:23 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 18, 2011 | 1 | 10:00 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 2, 2011 | 3 | 05:39 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 2, 2011 | 2 | 18:18 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |