Scouting Report
Paul Stastny holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Stastny on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Stastny wins 62.0% vs right-shot opponents — Kesler shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stastny 57.3% vs Kesler 56.0% (+1.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stastny 62.6%
Defensive zone
Stastny 54.4%
Neutral zone
Stastny 63.9%
Result
Paul Stastny favored at 57.7%
57.7%
42.3%
Stastny
Kesler
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Stastny
Kesler
Last 5: Stastny 4-1 Kesler
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
2
0
Stastny
Kesler
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
2
1
Stastny
Kesler
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stastny
Kesler
Edge
Even Strength
57.6% (959)
57.4% (1,185)
+0.2%
Power Play
60.8% (125)
58.0% (243)
+2.8%
Penalty Kill
58.1% (74)
49.2% (236)
+8.9%
On penalty kill, Stastny has a +8.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kesler shoots right. Stastny is 62.0% vs right-shot opponents (397).
Stastny shoots left. Kesler is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,075).
Home / Away
Stastny
Kesler
Home
55.9% (590)
58.5% (793)
Away
60.0% (568)
54.3% (871)
By Period
Stastny
Kesler
P1
59.6%
57.0%
P2
59.0%
55.4%
P3
55.3%
56.7%
OT
58.3%
54.8%
Final 5 min
65.1%
54.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
57.9%
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2, 2015 | 2 | 18:58 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 2, 2015 | 2 | 15:07 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 2, 2015 | 2 | 11:07 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 2, 2015 | 1 | 12:46 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 2, 2015 | 1 | 03:17 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |