Scouting Report
Paul Stastny holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Stastny on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 15 meetings). Stastny wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stastny 55.1% vs Aho 51.2% (+3.8%)
H2H factor
Stastny leads 20-8 in 28 meetings
Offensive zone
Stastny 72.9%
Defensive zone
Stastny 90.1%
Neutral zone
Stastny 87.4%
Result
Paul Stastny favored at 84.7%
84.7%
15.3%
Stastny
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
20
-
8
(28 meetings)
20
8
Stastny
Aho
Last 10: Stastny 6-4 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
5
3
Stastny
Aho
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
12
3
Stastny
Aho
15 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stastny
3
2
Stastny
Aho
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stastny
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
54.6% (10,616)
50.1% (6,619)
+4.5%
Power Play
59.1% (1,994)
58.9% (1,310)
+0.2%
Penalty Kill
52.9% (1,119)
46.3% (464)
+6.6%
On penalty kill, Stastny has a +6.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Stastny is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (8,871).
Stastny shoots left. Aho is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (5,305).
Home / Away
Stastny
Aho
Home
55.9% (7,073)
52.4% (4,308)
Away
54.3% (6,705)
50.1% (4,085)
By Period
Stastny
Aho
P1
56.3%
51.1%
P2
55.4%
52.0%
P3
53.5%
50.7%
OT
62.9%
48.9%
Final 5 min
55.7%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
55.1%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 21, 2022 | 3 | 06:00 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Apr 21, 2022 | 3 | 00:13 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Apr 21, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 21, 2022 | 2 | 18:21 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 21, 2022 | 2 | 16:40 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Apr 21, 2022 | 2 | 13:34 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Apr 21, 2022 | 2 | 10:34 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Apr 21, 2022 | 1 | 18:55 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Apr 21, 2022 | 1 | 12:42 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 7, 2021 | 2 | 01:45 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 8, 2020 | OT | 04:26 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 8, 2020 | 3 | 12:58 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 8, 2020 | 3 | 02:33 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 8, 2020 | 3 | 02:17 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 8, 2020 | 2 | 13:25 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 8, 2020 | 2 | 13:14 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 8, 2020 | 2 | 03:31 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 8, 2020 | 1 | 07:25 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 31, 2020 | 3 | 16:13 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 31, 2020 | 3 | 05:14 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |