Scouting Report
Paul Stastny holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Stastny on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Stastny wins 55.1% vs left-shot opponents — Smith shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stastny 55.4% vs Smith 51.8% (+3.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stastny 59.8%
Defensive zone
Stastny 72.2%
Neutral zone
Stastny 79.6%
Result
Paul Stastny favored at 64.8%
64.8%
35.2%
Stastny
Smith
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Stastny
Smith
Last 9: Stastny 6-3 Smith
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
5
1
Stastny
Smith
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Smith
0
2
Stastny
Smith
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stastny
1
0
Stastny
Smith
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stastny
Smith
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (1,004)
53.5% (430)
+1.9%
Power Play
59.0% (210)
47.7% (65)
+11.3%
Penalty Kill
54.1% (196)
49.1% (114)
+5.0%
On power play, Stastny has a +11.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smith shoots left. Stastny is 55.1% vs left-shot opponents (831).
Stastny shoots left. Smith is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (364).
Home / Away
Stastny
Smith
Home
56.5% (717)
54.0% (298)
Away
55.0% (693)
50.2% (311)
By Period
Stastny
Smith
P1
56.7%
55.4%
P2
57.7%
45.9%
P3
52.1%
54.6%
OT
100.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
59.1%
52.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
55.7%
Smith
40.0%▼
47.0%
52.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2017 | 3 | 00:38 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Feb 7, 2017 | 2 | 11:54 | Offensive | Zack Smith |
| Feb 7, 2017 | 2 | 04:39 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 7, 2017 | 1 | 18:11 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 7, 2017 | 1 | 17:50 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 7, 2017 | 1 | 14:13 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Feb 7, 2017 | 1 | 01:55 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Feb 7, 2017 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 17, 2017 | 3 | 00:43 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |