Scouting Report
Paul Stastny holds a +7.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Stastny on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Stastny wins 54.9% vs left-shot opponents — Smith shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stastny 54.6% vs Smith 48.2% (+7.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stastny 84.5%
Defensive zone
Stastny 65.5%
Neutral zone
Stastny 84.2%
Result
Paul Stastny favored at 80.1%
80.1%
19.9%
Stastny
Smith
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Stastny
Smith
Last 9: Stastny 6-3 Smith
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
3
0
Stastny
Smith
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Smith
0
2
Stastny
Smith
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stastny
3
1
Stastny
Smith
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stastny
Smith
Edge
Even Strength
54.8% (1,130)
49.7% (485)
+5.1%
Power Play
59.1% (235)
46.8% (47)
+12.3%
Penalty Kill
49.3% (150)
38.6% (88)
+10.7%
On power play, Stastny has a +12.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smith shoots left. Stastny is 54.9% vs left-shot opponents (947).
Stastny shoots left. Smith is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (374).
Home / Away
Stastny
Smith
Home
55.5% (803)
48.7% (310)
Away
54.2% (712)
47.1% (310)
By Period
Stastny
Smith
P1
57.4%
45.8%
P2
52.5%
47.4%
P3
54.3%
50.5%
OT
69.6%
50.0%
Final 5 min
52.0%
45.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
54.9%
Smith
40.0%▼
47.0%
47.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2018 | 3 | 16:13 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Apr 2, 2018 | 2 | 01:28 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 23, 2018 | 2 | 14:26 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 23, 2018 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Zack Smith |
| Jan 23, 2018 | 1 | 03:23 | Offensive | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 18, 2018 | 2 | 19:48 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Jan 18, 2018 | 2 | 11:13 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |
| Jan 18, 2018 | 1 | 18:20 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Jan 18, 2018 | 1 | 13:36 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |