Scouting Report
Paul Stastny holds a +8.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Stastny on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Stastny wins 53.5% vs left-shot opponents — Smith shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stastny 54.4% vs Smith 47.6% (+8.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stastny 85.7%
Defensive zone
Stastny 60.8%
Neutral zone
Stastny 76.5%
Result
Paul Stastny favored at 68.6%
68.6%
31.4%
Stastny
Smith
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Stastny
Smith
Last 6: Stastny 4-2 Smith
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stastny
3
0
Stastny
Smith
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Smith
1
2
Stastny
Smith
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stastny
Smith
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (859)
47.8% (178)
+5.8%
Power Play
59.9% (202)
0.0% (2)
+59.9%
Penalty Kill
55.1% (78)
30.0% (10)
+25.1%
On power play, Stastny has a +59.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smith shoots left. Stastny is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (727).
Stastny shoots left. Smith is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (113).
Home / Away
Stastny
Smith
Home
56.9% (596)
46.5% (86)
Away
52.5% (543)
46.2% (104)
By Period
Stastny
Smith
P1
53.9%
61.4%
P2
56.2%
39.4%
P3
54.4%
39.3%
OT
53.8%
100.0%
Final 5 min
52.8%
33.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stastny
52.0%▼
55.5%
54.8%
Smith
40.0%▼
47.0%
46.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 10, 2019 | 3 | 19:56 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Dec 10, 2019 | 3 | 16:31 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Dec 10, 2019 | 1 | 05:49 | Defensive | Paul Stastny |
| Nov 13, 2019 | 3 | 16:39 | Neutral | Zack Smith |
| Nov 13, 2019 | 1 | 02:58 | Neutral | Zack Smith |
| Nov 13, 2019 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Paul Stastny |