Scouting Report
Pavel Zacha holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Finnie on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Finnie 48.1% vs Zacha 51.7% (-5.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Finnie 55.2%
Defensive zone
Zacha 73.2%
Neutral zone
Zacha 59.9%
Result
Emmitt Finnie favored at 52.2%
52.2%
47.8%
Finnie
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Finnie
Zacha
Last 5: Finnie 3-2 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Finnie
3
1
Finnie
Zacha
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zacha
0
1
Finnie
Zacha
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Finnie
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
49.3% (75)
53.3% (646)
-4.0%
Power Play
36.4% (11)
53.0% (100)
-16.6%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (3)
38.9% (72)
-38.9%
On penalty kill, Zacha has a +38.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Finnie is 49.1% vs left-shot opponents (55).
Finnie shoots left. Zacha is 51.7% vs left-shot opponents (476).
Home / Away
Finnie
Zacha
Home
47.3% (55)
51.7% (410)
Away
44.1% (34)
52.2% (408)
By Period
Finnie
Zacha
P1
48.4%
57.7%
P2
48.1%
48.9%
P3
41.9%
50.2%
Final 5 min
58.8%
48.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Finnie
56.0%▲
46.1%
46.1%
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | 3 | 01:35 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 2 | 10:43 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 2 | 02:18 | Offensive | Emmitt Finnie |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 1 | 13:24 | Offensive | Emmitt Finnie |
| Mar 21, 2026 | 1 | 09:10 | Offensive | Emmitt Finnie |