Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Holland wins 53.4% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Holland 48.0% vs Hertl 50.7% (-3.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 51.4%
Defensive zone
Holland 60.0%
Neutral zone
Holland 56.5%
Result
Peter Holland favored at 51.7%
51.7%
48.3%
Holland
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Holland
Hertl
Last 5: Holland 2-3 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
Holland
Hertl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Holland
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Holland
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
49.0% (196)
51.5% (891)
-2.5%
Power Play
50.0% (4)
54.8% (135)
-4.8%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (27)
41.5% (130)
-8.2%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +8.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Holland is 53.4% vs left-shot opponents (133).
Holland shoots left. Hertl is 51.3% vs left-shot opponents (715).
Home / Away
Holland
Hertl
Home
52.1% (94)
52.6% (544)
Away
43.6% (133)
49.2% (612)
By Period
Holland
Hertl
P1
47.6%
49.4%
P2
48.6%
51.7%
P3
45.1%
51.4%
Final 5 min
59.4%
53.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Holland
38.0%▼
48.0%
47.1%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2018 | 3 | 18:10 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 25, 2018 | 3 | 16:18 | Offensive | Peter Holland |
| Jan 25, 2018 | 3 | 12:48 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 25, 2018 | 3 | 10:51 | Neutral | Peter Holland |
| Jan 25, 2018 | 1 | 10:35 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |