Scouting Report
Ryan Kesler holds a +6.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Umberger on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Umberger 50.3% vs Kesler 57.0% (-6.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Umberger 79.3%
Defensive zone
Umberger 60.9%
Neutral zone
Umberger 68.4%
Result
R.J. Umberger favored at 69.4%
69.4%
30.6%
Umberger
Kesler
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Umberger
Kesler
Last 7: Umberger 2-5 Kesler
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kesler
0
2
Umberger
Kesler
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kesler
0
2
Umberger
Kesler
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Umberger
2
1
Umberger
Kesler
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Umberger
Kesler
Edge
Even Strength
48.6% (107)
57.3% (1,022)
-8.7%
Power Play
50.5% (97)
61.5% (200)
-11.0%
Penalty Kill
64.3% (14)
54.9% (257)
+9.4%
On power play, Kesler has a +11.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kesler shoots right. Umberger is 47.7% vs right-shot opponents (65).
Umberger shoots left. Kesler is 57.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,091).
Home / Away
Umberger
Kesler
Home
51.9% (104)
58.6% (766)
Away
49.1% (116)
56.2% (730)
By Period
Umberger
Kesler
P1
55.0%
58.9%
P2
45.2%
56.8%
P3
50.0%
57.5%
OT
60.0%
31.6%
Final 5 min
48.2%
57.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Umberger
50.0%▼
53.0%
50.5%
Kesler
50.0%▼
54.5%
57.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27, 2011 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 27, 2011 | 1 | 02:02 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 27, 2011 | 1 | 00:52 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 1, 2011 | OT | 02:52 | Neutral | R.J. Umberger |
| Mar 1, 2011 | 3 | 07:19 | Neutral | R.J. Umberger |
| Mar 1, 2011 | 3 | 07:03 | Defensive | Ryan Kesler |
| Mar 1, 2011 | 2 | 18:02 | Offensive | Ryan Kesler |