Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Umberger on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Umberger 50.1% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-5.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 73.0%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 95.7%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 93.2%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 84.0%
16.0%
84.0%
Umberger
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
1
(8 meetings)
7
1
Umberger
O'Reilly
Last 8: Umberger 7-1 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Umberger
4
0
Umberger
O'Reilly
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Umberger
2
1
Umberger
O'Reilly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Umberger
1
0
Umberger
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Umberger
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (387)
56.2% (15,260)
-5.3%
Power Play
49.8% (251)
58.8% (3,445)
-9.0%
Penalty Kill
46.6% (58)
51.4% (2,811)
-4.8%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +9.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Umberger is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (479).
Umberger shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,860).
Home / Away
Umberger
O'Reilly
Home
52.3% (365)
57.6% (10,762)
Away
47.6% (336)
54.4% (10,787)
By Period
Umberger
O'Reilly
P1
50.0%
55.6%
P2
49.3%
57.0%
P3
50.0%
55.1%
OT
57.1%
62.2%
Final 5 min
48.9%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Umberger
50.0%▼
53.0%
50.1%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15, 2013 | 3 | 07:24 | Defensive | R.J. Umberger |
| Mar 1, 2012 | 2 | 07:04 | Offensive | R.J. Umberger |
| Mar 1, 2012 | 1 | 11:33 | Offensive | R.J. Umberger |
| Feb 24, 2012 | 1 | 10:04 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 12, 2011 | 3 | 01:57 | Offensive | R.J. Umberger |
| Oct 12, 2011 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | R.J. Umberger |
| Oct 30, 2010 | 3 | 06:39 | Offensive | R.J. Umberger |
| Oct 30, 2010 | 3 | 05:43 | Defensive | R.J. Umberger |