Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Umberger on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Umberger 49.3% vs O'Reilly 52.6% (-3.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Umberger 50.1%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 89.6%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 79.8%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 63.8%
36.2%
63.8%
Umberger
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Umberger
O'Reilly
Last 5: Umberger 4-1 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Umberger
3
0
Umberger
O'Reilly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Umberger
O'Reilly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Umberger
1
0
Umberger
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Umberger
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
50.6% (164)
52.5% (1,177)
-1.9%
Power Play
49.1% (114)
54.6% (130)
-5.5%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (25)
52.8% (108)
-12.8%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +12.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Umberger is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (204).
Umberger shoots left. O'Reilly is 53.7% vs left-shot opponents (1,027).
Home / Away
Umberger
O'Reilly
Home
48.8% (166)
54.9% (669)
Away
49.3% (140)
51.0% (774)
By Period
Umberger
O'Reilly
P1
43.7%
52.4%
P2
52.6%
56.1%
P3
51.4%
49.8%
OT
0.0%
57.7%
Final 5 min
51.8%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Umberger
50.0%▼
53.0%
49.0%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
52.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2012 | 2 | 07:04 | Offensive | R.J. Umberger |
| Mar 1, 2012 | 1 | 11:33 | Offensive | R.J. Umberger |
| Feb 24, 2012 | 1 | 10:04 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 12, 2011 | 3 | 01:57 | Offensive | R.J. Umberger |
| Oct 12, 2011 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | R.J. Umberger |