Scouting Report
Jay Beagle holds a +6.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Beagle on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Beagle wins 57.3% vs right-shot opponents — Johnson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Beagle 55.9% vs Johnson 50.3% (+6.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Beagle 81.4%
Defensive zone
Beagle 73.4%
Neutral zone
Beagle 75.5%
Result
Jay Beagle favored at 75.4%
75.4%
24.6%
Beagle
Johnson
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Beagle
Johnson
Last 5: Beagle 4-1 Johnson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Beagle
1
0
Beagle
Johnson
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Beagle
2
1
Beagle
Johnson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Beagle
1
0
Beagle
Johnson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Beagle
Johnson
Edge
Even Strength
57.2% (353)
51.0% (196)
+6.2%
Power Play
87.5% (16)
50.0% (2)
+37.5%
Penalty Kill
51.6% (95)
42.9% (14)
+8.7%
On power play, Beagle has a +37.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnson shoots right. Beagle is 57.3% vs right-shot opponents (124).
Beagle shoots right. Johnson is 52.9% vs right-shot opponents (70).
Home / Away
Beagle
Johnson
Home
62.0% (200)
48.8% (125)
Away
53.4% (264)
52.9% (87)
By Period
Beagle
Johnson
P1
55.8%
54.2%
P2
60.1%
44.2%
P3
54.5%
54.8%
OT
62.5%
0.0%
Final 5 min
63.6%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Beagle
50.0%▼
53.0%
57.1%
Johnson
54.0%▲
51.0%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 20, 2022 | 1 | 17:42 | Neutral | Jay Beagle |
| Apr 3, 2022 | 1 | 05:52 | Offensive | Jay Beagle |
| Nov 12, 2021 | 2 | 08:49 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Nov 12, 2021 | 2 | 01:28 | Defensive | Jay Beagle |
| Nov 12, 2021 | 1 | 13:54 | Defensive | Reese Johnson |