Scouting Report
Rich Peverley holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Peverley wins 59.4% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Peverley 57.7% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (+2.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Peverley 55.0%
Defensive zone
Peverley 54.1%
Neutral zone
Peverley 54.1%
Result
Rich Peverley favored at 54.3%
54.3%
45.7%
Peverley
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Peverley
O'Reilly
Last 7: Peverley 3-4 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Peverley
2
0
Peverley
O'Reilly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
2
Peverley
O'Reilly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
2
Peverley
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Peverley
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
58.0% (1,715)
56.2% (15,260)
+1.8%
Power Play
57.0% (391)
58.8% (3,445)
-1.8%
Penalty Kill
59.2% (333)
51.4% (2,811)
+7.8%
On penalty kill, Peverley has a +7.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Peverley is 59.4% vs left-shot opponents (1,710).
Peverley shoots right. O'Reilly is 55.7% vs right-shot opponents (7,689).
Home / Away
Peverley
O'Reilly
Home
58.1% (1,266)
57.6% (10,762)
Away
57.9% (1,182)
54.4% (10,787)
By Period
Peverley
O'Reilly
P1
59.6%
55.6%
P2
57.8%
57.0%
P3
57.0%
55.1%
OT
51.3%
62.2%
Final 5 min
60.1%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Peverley
60.0%▲
58.0%
58.0%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2013 | 2 | 03:17 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 15, 2013 | 2 | 02:05 | Offensive | Rich Peverley |
| Dec 10, 2010 | 3 | 18:36 | Offensive | Rich Peverley |
| Dec 10, 2010 | 3 | 11:23 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 30, 2010 | 2 | 04:05 | Neutral | Rich Peverley |
| Nov 30, 2010 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 30, 2010 | 1 | 08:09 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |