Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Nash on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Matthews wins 57.4% vs right-shot opponents — Nash shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 55.8% vs Nash 51.7% (+4.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 59.7%
Defensive zone
Nash 89.6%
Neutral zone
Nash 68.8%
Result
Riley Nash favored at 73.1%
26.9%
73.1%
Matthews
Nash
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Matthews
Nash
Last 6: Matthews 2-4 Nash
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Matthews
Nash
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nash
1
3
Matthews
Nash
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Nash
Edge
Even Strength
56.3% (1,167)
54.1% (292)
+2.2%
Power Play
57.5% (40)
57.1% (7)
+0.4%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (22)
45.9% (98)
+4.1%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +4.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nash shoots right. Matthews is 57.4% vs right-shot opponents (474).
Matthews shoots left. Nash is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (280).
Home / Away
Matthews
Nash
Home
60.7% (572)
56.3% (183)
Away
52.4% (657)
48.6% (214)
By Period
Matthews
Nash
P1
60.3%
58.9%
P2
55.6%
51.0%
P3
53.3%
46.5%
OT
45.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
54.5%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
56.2%
Nash
48.0%▼
49.5%
52.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2022 | 3 | 01:48 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 12, 2022 | 3 | 06:58 | Defensive | Riley Nash |
| Jan 12, 2022 | 2 | 07:00 | Defensive | Riley Nash |
| Jan 12, 2022 | 1 | 11:48 | Defensive | Riley Nash |
| Dec 9, 2021 | 3 | 04:32 | Offensive | Riley Nash |
| Dec 9, 2021 | 1 | 04:24 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |