Scouting Report
Cal O'Reilly holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Nash on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 52.2% vs Nash 49.6% (+4.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 56.4%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 53.7%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 51.2%
Result
Cal O'Reilly favored at 52.7%
52.7%
47.3%
O'Reilly
Nash
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
O'Reilly
Nash
Last 5: O'Reilly 3-2 Nash
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nash
1
2
O'Reilly
Nash
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
0
O'Reilly
Nash
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Nash
Edge
Even Strength
53.1% (98)
50.7% (341)
+2.4%
Power Play
63.6% (11)
58.3% (24)
+5.3%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +5.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nash shoots right. O'Reilly is 50.0% vs right-shot opponents (44).
O'Reilly shoots left. Nash is 49.0% vs left-shot opponents (249).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Nash
Home
56.0% (84)
50.0% (200)
Away
48.0% (25)
48.9% (190)
By Period
O'Reilly
Nash
P1
47.4%
47.1%
P2
60.6%
60.6%
P3
55.3%
38.1%
Final 5 min
46.4%
43.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
52.0%▲
50.5%
54.1%
Nash
48.0%▼
49.5%
49.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2016 | 3 | 04:56 | Neutral | Cal O'Reilly |
| Mar 12, 2016 | 2 | 12:32 | Defensive | Riley Nash |
| Mar 12, 2016 | 1 | 16:59 | Neutral | Cal O'Reilly |
| Mar 12, 2016 | 1 | 13:21 | Defensive | Cal O'Reilly |
| Mar 12, 2016 | 1 | 04:04 | Defensive | Riley Nash |