Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Pelley on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Toews wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — Pelley shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Toews 56.3% vs Pelley 52.1% (+3.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Toews 57.8%
Defensive zone
Pelley 85.2%
Neutral zone
Pelley 74.8%
Result
Rod Pelley favored at 74.5%
25.5%
74.5%
Toews
Pelley
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Toews
Pelley
Last 5: Toews 1-4 Pelley
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Toews
1
0
Toews
Pelley
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pelley
0
3
Toews
Pelley
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pelley
0
1
Toews
Pelley
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Toews
Pelley
Edge
Even Strength
55.6% (1,125)
53.4% (208)
+2.2%
Power Play
59.3% (312)
50.0% (4)
+9.3%
Penalty Kill
57.4% (204)
50.5% (103)
+6.9%
On power play, Toews has a +9.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pelley shoots left. Toews is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,194).
Toews shoots left. Pelley is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (201).
Home / Away
Toews
Pelley
Home
59.8% (858)
55.1% (127)
Away
53.3% (795)
51.3% (193)
By Period
Toews
Pelley
P1
58.7%
56.0%
P2
55.1%
49.6%
P3
56.5%
53.0%
OT
54.8%
100.0%
Final 5 min
56.3%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
56.7%
Pelley
50.0%▬
49.0%
52.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2010 | 3 | 16:29 | Defensive | Rod Pelley |
| Nov 3, 2010 | 3 | 04:21 | Defensive | Rod Pelley |
| Nov 3, 2010 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Rod Pelley |
| Nov 3, 2010 | 2 | 18:43 | Defensive | Rod Pelley |
| Nov 3, 2010 | 2 | 13:59 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |