Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +13.1% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Horak wins 42.9% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Horak 43.9% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-13.1%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 9-9 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 60.8%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 51.6%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 52.5%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 55.1%
44.9%
55.1%
Horak
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
9
(18 meetings)
9
9
Horak
O'Reilly
Last 10: Horak 6-4 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
4
Horak
O'Reilly
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Horak
2
1
Horak
O'Reilly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Horak
5
4
Horak
O'Reilly
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Horak
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
41.8% (594)
56.2% (15,103)
-14.4%
Power Play
51.4% (37)
58.7% (3,395)
-7.3%
Penalty Kill
57.9% (19)
51.6% (2,769)
+6.3%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +14.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Horak is 42.9% vs left-shot opponents (417).
Horak shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,728).
Home / Away
Horak
O'Reilly
Home
43.7% (325)
57.6% (10,669)
Away
42.2% (327)
54.4% (10,631)
By Period
Horak
O'Reilly
P1
42.4%
55.5%
P2
44.2%
57.0%
P3
42.6%
55.2%
OT
0.0%
62.7%
Final 5 min
42.3%
55.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Horak
38.0%▼
46.0%
42.9%
O'Reilly
56.0%▲
54.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2013 | 3 | 01:15 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 8, 2013 | 1 | 16:00 | Defensive | Roman Horak |
| Nov 6, 2011 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Roman Horak |
| Nov 6, 2011 | 2 | 07:18 | Neutral | Roman Horak |
| Nov 6, 2011 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Roman Horak |
| Nov 6, 2011 | 1 | 13:06 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 6, 2011 | 1 | 06:19 | Defensive | Roman Horak |
| Nov 6, 2011 | 1 | 02:47 | Offensive | Roman Horak |
| Oct 26, 2011 | 3 | 09:56 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 26, 2011 | 3 | 07:48 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 26, 2011 | 3 | 03:09 | Offensive | Roman Horak |
| Oct 26, 2011 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 26, 2011 | 2 | 12:58 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 26, 2011 | 2 | 04:31 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 26, 2011 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Roman Horak |
| Oct 26, 2011 | 1 | 10:50 | Neutral | Roman Horak |
| Oct 26, 2011 | 1 | 07:20 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 26, 2011 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |