Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +11.3% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Horak wins 42.9% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Horak 43.1% vs O'Reilly 52.6% (-11.3%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 8-8 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 55.3%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 54.2%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 53.1%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 54.1%
45.9%
54.1%
Horak
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
8
(16 meetings)
8
8
Horak
O'Reilly
Last 10: Horak 6-4 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
4
Horak
O'Reilly
6 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Horak
O'Reilly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Horak
5
3
Horak
O'Reilly
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Horak
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
40.1% (399)
52.5% (1,177)
-12.4%
Power Play
53.8% (26)
54.6% (130)
-0.8%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (14)
52.8% (108)
-2.8%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +12.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Horak is 42.9% vs left-shot opponents (280).
Horak shoots left. O'Reilly is 53.7% vs left-shot opponents (1,027).
Home / Away
Horak
O'Reilly
Home
40.5% (227)
54.9% (669)
Away
42.5% (214)
51.0% (774)
By Period
Horak
O'Reilly
P1
42.3%
52.4%
P2
40.5%
56.1%
P3
41.5%
49.8%
Final 5 min
41.9%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Horak
38.0%▼
46.0%
41.5%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
52.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2011 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Roman Horak |
| Nov 6, 2011 | 2 | 07:18 | Neutral | Roman Horak |
| Nov 6, 2011 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Roman Horak |
| Nov 6, 2011 | 1 | 13:06 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 6, 2011 | 1 | 06:19 | Defensive | Roman Horak |
| Nov 6, 2011 | 1 | 02:47 | Offensive | Roman Horak |
| Oct 26, 2011 | 3 | 09:56 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 26, 2011 | 3 | 07:48 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 26, 2011 | 3 | 03:09 | Offensive | Roman Horak |
| Oct 26, 2011 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 26, 2011 | 2 | 12:58 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 26, 2011 | 2 | 04:31 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 26, 2011 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Roman Horak |
| Oct 26, 2011 | 1 | 10:50 | Neutral | Roman Horak |
| Oct 26, 2011 | 1 | 07:20 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 26, 2011 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |