Scouting Report
Joe Thornton holds a +6.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Thornton on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Thornton wins 53.4% vs right-shot opponents — Carpenter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thornton 49.5% vs Carpenter 44.1% (+6.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thornton 84.3%
Defensive zone
Carpenter 55.0%
Neutral zone
Thornton 75.1%
Result
Joe Thornton favored at 61.5%
61.5%
38.5%
Thornton
Carpenter
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Thornton
Carpenter
Last 6: Thornton 4-2 Carpenter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
1
0
Thornton
Carpenter
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thornton
2
1
Thornton
Carpenter
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Thornton
Carpenter
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thornton
Carpenter
Edge
Even Strength
48.9% (583)
46.2% (474)
+2.7%
Power Play
52.5% (59)
28.6% (7)
+23.9%
Penalty Kill
58.3% (12)
32.6% (129)
+25.7%
On penalty kill, Thornton has a +25.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carpenter shoots right. Thornton is 53.4% vs right-shot opponents (247).
Thornton shoots left. Carpenter is 41.3% vs left-shot opponents (467).
Home / Away
Thornton
Carpenter
Home
51.6% (341)
46.5% (303)
Away
47.0% (313)
39.7% (307)
By Period
Thornton
Carpenter
P1
53.9%
44.2%
P2
46.9%
40.4%
P3
47.0%
44.2%
Final 5 min
52.0%
48.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thornton
44.0%▼
46.5%
49.4%
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
43.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2020 | 1 | 13:32 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 5, 2019 | 3 | 02:19 | Neutral | Joe Thornton |
| Nov 5, 2019 | 1 | 12:31 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Nov 5, 2019 | 1 | 07:09 | Offensive | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 10, 2019 | 3 | 01:02 | Defensive | Joe Thornton |
| Oct 10, 2019 | 1 | 14:43 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |