Scouting Report
Victor Rask holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Rask on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Carpenter wins 46.8% vs left-shot opponents — Rask shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carpenter 48.5% vs Rask 50.1% (-1.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Rask 62.7%
Defensive zone
Carpenter 86.8%
Neutral zone
Carpenter 67.5%
Result
Ryan Carpenter favored at 53.0%
53.0%
47.0%
Carpenter
Rask
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Carpenter
Rask
Last 7: Carpenter 2-5 Rask
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Rask
1
3
Carpenter
Rask
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Rask
0
1
Carpenter
Rask
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Carpenter
Rask
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carpenter
Rask
Edge
Even Strength
49.6% (2,027)
50.0% (4,428)
-0.4%
Power Play
41.5% (41)
54.3% (363)
-12.8%
Penalty Kill
43.9% (467)
35.2% (54)
+8.7%
On power play, Rask has a +12.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Rask shoots left. Carpenter is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,840).
Carpenter shoots right. Rask is 46.6% vs right-shot opponents (1,743).
Home / Away
Carpenter
Rask
Home
51.2% (1,290)
52.0% (2,380)
Away
45.5% (1,245)
48.3% (2,465)
By Period
Carpenter
Rask
P1
49.6%
50.7%
P2
47.7%
48.9%
P3
48.0%
50.7%
OT
55.6%
52.1%
Final 5 min
49.6%
48.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
48.4%
Rask
60.0%▲
49.5%
50.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2022 | 3 | 12:12 | Offensive | Victor Rask |
| Dec 15, 2019 | 3 | 18:57 | Neutral | Victor Rask |
| Dec 15, 2019 | 3 | 05:29 | Offensive | Victor Rask |
| Dec 15, 2019 | 2 | 05:02 | Offensive | Victor Rask |
| Dec 15, 2019 | 2 | 01:59 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Dec 15, 2019 | 1 | 15:33 | Offensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Mar 29, 2019 | 2 | 12:52 | Defensive | Victor Rask |