Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (45.2% vs 44.3%). Look for Greene on neutral-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Sourdif wins 42.9% vs right-shot opponents — Greene shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sourdif 45.9% vs Greene 45.0% (+0.9%)
H2H factor
Greene leads 8-4 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Greene 50.3%
Defensive zone
Greene 55.8%
Neutral zone
Greene 57.5%
Result
Ryan Greene favored at 54.8%
45.2%
54.8%
Sourdif
Greene
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
8
(12 meetings)
4
8
Sourdif
Greene
Last 10: Sourdif 4-6 Greene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Greene
1
3
Sourdif
Greene
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sourdif
2
0
Sourdif
Greene
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Greene
1
5
Sourdif
Greene
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sourdif
Greene
Edge
Even Strength
44.6% (556)
44.1% (506)
+0.5%
Power Play
50.0% (24)
47.5% (59)
+2.5%
Penalty Kill
61.5% (13)
43.6% (149)
+17.9%
On penalty kill, Sourdif has a +17.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Greene shoots right. Sourdif is 42.9% vs right-shot opponents (175).
Sourdif shoots right. Greene is 45.3% vs right-shot opponents (179).
Home / Away
Sourdif
Greene
Home
43.6% (321)
47.4% (382)
Away
47.1% (272)
40.7% (332)
By Period
Sourdif
Greene
P1
43.1%
47.2%
P2
43.9%
39.0%
P3
48.6%
47.0%
OT
100.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
44.5%
43.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sourdif
32.0%▼
40.5%
45.2%
Greene
40.0%▬
40.5%
44.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 9, 2026 | 3 | 15:28 | Neutral | Ryan Greene |
| Jan 9, 2026 | 1 | 15:00 | Offensive | Ryan Greene |
| Jan 9, 2026 | 1 | 04:03 | Neutral | Ryan Greene |
| Jan 9, 2026 | 1 | 01:06 | Neutral | Justin Sourdif |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 10:35 | Defensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 03:23 | Offensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Greene |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 18:45 | Neutral | Ryan Greene |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 13:31 | Offensive | Ryan Greene |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 06:56 | Defensive | Justin Sourdif |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 02:39 | Offensive | Ryan Greene |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Greene |