Scouting Report
Ryan Johansen holds a +10.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Kelly on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 45.4% vs Johansen 54.3% (-10.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johansen 85.4%
Defensive zone
Johansen 51.1%
Neutral zone
Johansen 57.5%
Result
Ryan Johansen favored at 51.1%
48.9%
51.1%
Kelly
Johansen
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Kelly
Johansen
Last 5: Kelly 3-2 Johansen
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
3
2
Kelly
Johansen
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Johansen
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (373)
54.0% (1,251)
-6.5%
Penalty Kill
35.9% (128)
55.6% (63)
-19.7%
On penalty kill, Johansen has a +19.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johansen shoots right. Kelly is 49.0% vs right-shot opponents (202).
Kelly shoots left. Johansen is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,042).
Home / Away
Kelly
Johansen
Home
47.5% (259)
56.3% (746)
Away
41.3% (242)
52.8% (726)
By Period
Kelly
Johansen
P1
46.7%
54.0%
P2
42.9%
53.8%
P3
43.4%
55.7%
Final 5 min
42.2%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
44.5%
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
54.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 17, 2016 | 2 | 12:34 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Nov 8, 2016 | 3 | 12:26 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 8, 2016 | 3 | 08:17 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 8, 2016 | 2 | 19:11 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 8, 2016 | 1 | 08:41 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |