Scouting Report
Ryan Johansen holds a +14.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Johansen on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Bedard wins 37.2% vs right-shot opponents — Johansen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bedard 40.7% vs Johansen 52.8% (-14.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bedard 73.9%
Defensive zone
Bedard 78.0%
Neutral zone
Bedard 73.6%
Result
Connor Bedard favored at 74.6%
74.6%
25.4%
Bedard
Johansen
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Bedard
Johansen
Last 5: Bedard 1-4 Johansen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johansen
0
1
Bedard
Johansen
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johansen
0
1
Bedard
Johansen
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johansen
1
2
Bedard
Johansen
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bedard
Johansen
Edge
Even Strength
38.9% (512)
51.9% (597)
-13.0%
Power Play
43.8% (16)
57.9% (133)
-14.1%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (4)
54.3% (81)
-29.3%
On penalty kill, Johansen has a +29.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johansen shoots right. Bedard is 37.2% vs right-shot opponents (148).
Bedard shoots right. Johansen is 53.7% vs right-shot opponents (227).
Home / Away
Bedard
Johansen
Home
40.2% (246)
55.8% (387)
Away
37.8% (286)
50.7% (424)
By Period
Bedard
Johansen
P1
39.9%
50.0%
P2
38.5%
56.2%
P3
39.0%
52.6%
OT
25.0%
75.0%
Final 5 min
46.7%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bedard
46.0%▲
42.5%
38.9%
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2024 | 2 | 04:50 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 2 | 07:44 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 2 | 07:38 | Neutral | Connor Bedard |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 2 | 07:29 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 1 | 04:17 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |