Scouting Report
Derek MacKenzie holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Johansen on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). MacKenzie wins 53.1% vs right-shot opponents — Johansen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKenzie 54.3% vs Johansen 52.2% (+2.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johansen 82.8%
Defensive zone
MacKenzie 50.8%
Neutral zone
Johansen 68.9%
Result
Ryan Johansen favored at 69.2%
30.8%
69.2%
MacKenzie
Johansen
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
MacKenzie
Johansen
Last 8: MacKenzie 2-6 Johansen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johansen
0
3
MacKenzie
Johansen
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
MacKenzie
Johansen
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johansen
1
2
MacKenzie
Johansen
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKenzie
Johansen
Edge
Even Strength
55.8% (523)
51.9% (1,006)
+3.9%
Power Play
52.4% (21)
56.0% (207)
-3.6%
Penalty Kill
52.9% (257)
42.4% (33)
+10.5%
On penalty kill, MacKenzie has a +10.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johansen shoots right. MacKenzie is 53.1% vs right-shot opponents (307).
MacKenzie shoots left. Johansen is 54.4% vs left-shot opponents (856).
Home / Away
MacKenzie
Johansen
Home
54.4% (463)
56.4% (633)
Away
55.3% (338)
48.1% (613)
By Period
MacKenzie
Johansen
P1
54.2%
51.4%
P2
54.0%
52.9%
P3
56.7%
51.7%
OT
33.3%
84.6%
Final 5 min
52.6%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKenzie
56.0%▲
53.5%
54.8%
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 13, 2016 | 3 | 06:20 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Feb 13, 2016 | 2 | 09:30 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Feb 13, 2016 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 27, 2015 | 2 | 12:12 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 27, 2015 | 2 | 05:46 | Neutral | Derek MacKenzie |
| Dec 27, 2015 | 1 | 14:42 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 4, 2015 | 2 | 17:50 | Defensive | Derek MacKenzie |
| Dec 4, 2015 | 2 | 01:16 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |