Scouting Report
Ryan Johansen holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Johansen on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Johansen wins 54.9% vs left-shot opponents — Smith shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Johansen 53.3% vs Smith 49.2% (+4.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johansen 90.1%
Defensive zone
Smith 58.3%
Neutral zone
Johansen 59.4%
Result
Ryan Johansen favored at 67.5%
67.5%
32.5%
Johansen
Smith
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Johansen
Smith
Last 7: Johansen 5-2 Smith
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johansen
2
1
Johansen
Smith
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Johansen
Smith
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johansen
2
0
Johansen
Smith
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Johansen
Smith
Edge
Even Strength
54.7% (1,149)
50.9% (666)
+3.8%
Power Play
49.7% (191)
70.0% (10)
-20.3%
Penalty Kill
47.9% (121)
39.6% (144)
+8.3%
On power play, Smith has a +20.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Smith shoots left. Johansen is 54.9% vs left-shot opponents (968).
Johansen shoots right. Smith is 40.9% vs right-shot opponents (298).
Home / Away
Johansen
Smith
Home
52.5% (739)
50.9% (405)
Away
54.6% (722)
47.5% (415)
By Period
Johansen
Smith
P1
53.8%
47.1%
P2
55.8%
49.6%
P3
51.2%
50.4%
OT
52.4%
100.0%
Final 5 min
51.1%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
53.5%
Smith
40.0%▼
47.0%
49.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 17, 2018 | 3 | 11:02 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 17, 2018 | 3 | 02:22 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 11, 2018 | 3 | 19:47 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 11, 2018 | 2 | 00:29 | Defensive | Zack Smith |
| Dec 11, 2018 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 11, 2018 | 1 | 19:00 | Offensive | Zack Smith |
| Dec 11, 2018 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |